PRE-BELL DELTA BRIEFING
Date: Friday, March 13, 2026 Time: 9:10 AM ET — 20 minutes to bell Changes Since Full Briefing (6:50 AM):
PREMARKET MOVERS
Futures — Improved Since 7:40 AM
| Future | 7:40 AM | Now (9:10 AM) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P) | 6,696.25 (+0.28%) | 6,708.50 (+0.46%) | +12.25 pts improved |
| NQ (Nasdaq) | 24,627 (+0.27%) | 24,672.75 (+0.46%) | +45.75 pts improved |
| YM (Dow) | 46,853 (+0.28%) | 46,929 (+0.45%) | +76 pts improved |
| RTY (Russell) | 2,502.50 (+0.46%) | 2,508.90 (+0.72%) | +6.40 pts improved |
Futures strengthened materially since the full briefing — the bounce that looked tentative at 7:40 AM has firmed up. Russell 2000 now leading at +0.72% (was +0.46%), consistent with short-covering into the weekend. ES touched an intraday high of 6,724.25 before pulling back.
Oil — Key Shift
| Asset | 7:40 AM | Now | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (CL=F) | $94.42 (-1.37%) | $93.51 (-2.32%) | DOWN another $0.91 |
WTI dropped further to $93.51, now -2.32% on the day. Intraday range was wide: hit $98.09 high and $92.17 low. The Hegseth comments dismissing Hormuz concerns (“don’t need to worry about it”) appear to be providing marginal relief. This is the lowest crude has been in several sessions.
Gold — Reversal
| Asset | 7:40 AM | Now | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GC=F) | $5,098.20 (-0.54%) | $5,127.30 (+0.03%) | REVERSED to flat/green |
Gold reversed from -$27 to essentially flat (+$1.50). The margin-call liquidation thesis from the full briefing may be playing out — selling exhaustion followed by safe-haven re-bid.
Natural Gas — Weakened
| Asset | 7:40 AM | Now | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| NG=F | $3.28 (+1.45%) | $3.16 (-2.26%) | REVERSED negative |
Natural gas flipped from +1.45% to -2.26%. Significant intraday reversal.
Crypto — Extending Gains
| Asset | 7:40 AM | Now | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $72,352 (+2.58%) | $72,794 (+3.21%) | +$442 higher |
| ETH | $2,124.91 (+2.45%) | $2,154.70 (+3.89%) | +$30 higher |
Crypto continues to rally. BTC now +3.21%, approaching session high of $72,942. ETH outperforming at +3.89%.
No Change in ETF Premarket
SPY ($666.06), QQQ ($597.26), DIA ($467.48), IWM ($247.41) — premarket last prints unchanged from full briefing. These will reprice at the open based on current futures levels. Expect SPY to open near $669-670 based on ES at 6,708.
BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS
1. Hegseth: New Supreme Leader “Likely Wounded” [NEW]
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced at a Pentagon briefing:
- New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “likely injured”
- US and Israel have now targeted over 15,000 positions since Feb 28 (up from 6,000 reported yesterday)
- Hegseth: “The United States is dismantling the extremist Iranian regime’s armed forces in an unprecedented manner”
- On Hormuz: “Don’t need to worry about it” — downplaying the closure
- Gen. Caine confirmed US targeting Iran’s minelayers threatening the strait
This is a significant escalation in US rhetoric claiming military dominance. If the Supreme Leader is genuinely wounded, it could accelerate either collapse or desperate retaliation.
2. IRGC Warns Against Protests [NEW]
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a public warning that any new protests would be met with a “stronger blow than January 8” — when several thousand civilians were reportedly killed in anti-government protests. This signals internal instability within Iran. The regime is fighting on two fronts: external war and domestic dissent.
3. Israeli Nuclear Claim [NEW]
Netanyahu confirmed Israel killed a senior Iranian nuclear scientist and struck other scientists involved in weapons development. This goes beyond conventional military targets and into the nuclear program directly.
4. Adobe CEO Departing [NEW — MARKET RELEVANT]
Adobe fell over 8% in premarket after announcing its CEO will depart after 18 years. This is a material single-stock event that could drag on XLK/QQQ at the open.
5. Fed Rate Cut Odds Collapsed [NEW DATA POINT]
CME FedWatch now shows 47% chance of NO rate cuts at all in 2026 — up from just 3% a month ago. Trump posted on Truth Social urging Powell to cut rates “immediately, not waiting for the next meeting.” This is a massive shift in rate expectations.
6. PCE Data Due at 8:30 AM [CORRECTION to Full Briefing]
The Morningstar morning briefing references the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) at 8:30 AM — this was not highlighted in the full briefing. PCE + GDP revision + Durable Goods all hitting at 8:30 AM. This is a triple data release.
VOLATILITY UPDATE
UVXY ($50.82, +9.86%) and SVXY ($47.10, -3.48%) — no material change from the full briefing snapshot. VIX remains elevated in the 27-30 range. The improved futures are not yet compressing vol, suggesting the market doesn’t trust this bounce.
HYG ($79.35, -0.64%) — unchanged. Credit stress still present.
TRADE IDEA UPDATES
Invalidations / Adjustments
Tanker thesis (STNG, FRO): Hegseth’s comments about Hormuz (“don’t need to worry about it,” targeting Iran’s minelayers) provide a NEW reason to exit. If the US actually clears Hormuz threats, the tanker re-routing thesis collapses entirely. STNG -7.97%, FRO -5.24% still in Day 4 of rout. RECOMMENDATION: EXIT remaining tanker positions.
Natural gas long (UNG): NG=F reversed from +1.45% to -2.26%. The Hegseth Hormuz dismissal may be weighing on the LNG disruption thesis. Hold but tighten stop to UNG $12.25 (was $12).
New Signals
Adobe (ADBE) short/put opportunity: -8% premarket on CEO departure is a significant gap. If it opens below support, could provide a momentum short. Watch the first 15 minutes of trading for direction.
Ceasefire lottery (Idea #15): The wounded Supreme Leader news increases the tail probability of a faster resolution. The March 20 $685 SPY calls from the full briefing may be worth a slightly larger allocation. Still speculative.
Defense longs (LMT, NOC, KTOS): All holding green in premarket (+0.52%, +0.43%, +0.61%). The 15,000 targets struck and increasing military tempo reinforce the supercycle thesis. Entry levels from the full briefing ($645 LMT, $725 NOC, $87 KTOS) have not triggered — these names are not pulling back. Consider entering at current levels rather than waiting for a dip that may not come.
Unchanged
All other trade ideas from the full briefing remain valid. No new invalidations beyond tankers and the NG tightened stop.
LEVELS ADJUSTMENT
Gap Analysis
SPY closed $666.06. ES futures at 6,708.50 imply an opening price near $669-670 — a gap up of approximately +$3-4 (+0.5%). This is a modest gap, not extreme enough to fade.
Adjusted Key Levels
| Level | Full Briefing | Adjusted (9:10 AM) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY Resistance 1 | $672 | $670-672 | Gap-up target area, likely first test |
| SPY Support 1 | $660 | $665 (session low) | Premarket low of $665.88 held |
| WTI Ceiling | $100 | $98 | Intraday high was $98.09, failed to hold |
| WTI Floor | $90 | $92 | Intraday low was $92.17 |
BOTTOM LINE
Futures have firmed since the full briefing, now +0.45% across the board vs. +0.28% earlier. The key catalyst: Defense Secretary Hegseth’s Pentagon briefing claiming the new Supreme Leader is wounded, 15,000+ targets struck, and dismissing Hormuz concerns. Oil responded by sliding further to $93.51. However, the 8:30 AM triple data release (PCE + GDP + Durable Goods) is the real trigger for direction — a hot PCE print in the context of 47% chance of no rate cuts could quickly reverse this bounce. Size positions for weekend risk and watch the first 30 minutes post-data carefully.