OPENING RANGE BRIEFING
Date: Friday, March 13, 2026 Time: 10:39 AM ET — First hour complete Market Action: 🟢 Broad relief rally — indices gap higher, VIX crushed, oil retreating from $100
OPENING RANGE ANALYSIS
How Did the Open Compare to Premarket?
The open was largely in-line with premarket expectations set in the 9:10 AM Delta Briefing. SPY opened at $669.27 (vs. Delta estimate of $669-670 based on ES at 6,708) — essentially perfect alignment. The first-hour range has been constructive with a clear gap-up open from Thursday’s close.
| Index | Prev Close | Open | 1st Hr High | 1st Hr Low | Current (~10:39) | % Change | Volume vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $666.06 | $669.27 | $672.34 | $667.73 | $669.07 | +0.45% | 19.7M vs 92.4M avg (21%) |
| QQQ | $597.26 | $599.73 | $603.57 | $598.93 | $600.32 | +0.51% | 16.6M vs 60.9M avg (27%) |
| DIA | $467.48 | $469.94 | $472.10 | $468.69 | $470.14 | +0.57% | 2.5M vs 6.5M avg (39%) |
| IWM | $247.41 | $249.26 | $250.61 | $247.51 | $248.43 | +0.41% | 14.3M vs 40.5M avg (35%) |
Opening Range Signal: NEUTRAL-BULLISH. All four indices opened above Thursday’s close, tested higher in the first 30 minutes, then pulled back to mid-range. The initial pop to highs (SPY $672.34) was rejected — buyers couldn’t hold the top of the range. Volume is running light at ~25% of daily average through the first hour, suggesting this is a low-conviction bounce rather than aggressive institutional buying.
Gap Analysis: SPY gapped up ~$3.21 from close. The gap fill level is $666.06 (Thursday’s close). If SPY loses $667.73 (today’s low), gap fill becomes the downside target. The gap remains unfilled for now.
KEY MOVERS — FIRST HOUR
Big Surprise vs. Expectations
| Ticker | Delta Briefing Expectation | Actual First Hour | Surprise? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | -8% premarket | -6.13% ($253.25) — recovering | ✅ Less bad — bouncing off $247.19 low |
| ULTA | Not in delta, but -7.5% premarket | -10.19% ($561.02) | ❌ Worse — selling accelerated at open |
| VIX | 27-28 range expected | 25.56, -6.34% — crushed | ✅ Major vol compression |
| UVXY | $50.82 close | $48.97, -3.64% | ✅ Tracking VIX collapse |
| LMT | Expected defense selling | -1.34% ($644.11) | ⚠️ Continued weakness |
| USO/Oil | WTI was -2.32% at delta | USO -1.86% ($116.19) | ✅ Oil pullback moderating |
| BTC | +3.21% at delta | +4.22% ($73,506) | ✅ Crypto extending hard |
| ETH | +3.89% at delta | +5.66% ($2,191) | ✅ ETH outperformance accelerating |
| EWY | Expected bounce | +2.95% ($127.14) | ✅ South Korea strong |
| GLD | Flat at delta | +0.08% ($467.24) | ➖ Gold quiet, no follow-through |
Sector Leadership — First Hour
| Sector | ETF | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | XLU | +1.52% | LEADING — defensive rotation |
| Financials | XLF | +1.05% | Strong — yield curve steepening |
| Real Estate | XLRE | +0.81% | Bid for rate-sensitive |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | +0.72% | Defensive bid |
| Healthcare | XLV | +0.65% | Defensive bid |
| Technology | XLK | +0.55% | In-line with broad market |
| Consumer Disc | XLC | +0.36% | Lagging |
| Energy | XLE | +0.06% | FLAT — oil pullback capping gains |
| Industrials | XLI | -0.04% | FLAT — defense drag offsetting |
| Materials | XLB | -0.12% | LAGGING — only red sector |
Key Read: This is a DEFENSIVE-LED rally. Utilities +1.52% leading while Materials -0.12% — this is NOT risk-on. The market is bouncing but rotating into safety. Financials strong on steeper yields. Energy flat despite the index rally because crude is pulling back (USO -1.86%).
Mag 7 Check
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | +1.05% | Best Mag 7, outperforming |
| NVDA | +0.24% | Muted, below market |
| AMZN | +0.16% | Barely green |
| TSLA | +0.16% | Barely green, 15.6M vol vs 65M avg |
| MSFT | +0.07% | Flat |
| AAPL | -0.31% | RED — underperforming |
| META | -2.02% | Significant lag, breaking down |
META at -2.02% is notable — it’s meaningfully underperforming on a green day. AAPL also red. Mag 7 breadth is poor (2 red, 3 barely green, only GOOGL with conviction).
8:30 AM DATA RELEASES — WHAT THE MARKET DIGESTED
PCE Price Index (January 2026) — Released 8:30 AM
Based on Oxford Economics nowcast and consensus estimates:
- Headline PCE: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y (expected 0.3% / 2.9%) — IN LINE
- Core PCE: ~0.4% m/m, ~3.1% y/y (expected 0.4% / 3.1%) — IN LINE but still hot
- Core PCE at 3.1% y/y is well above the Fed’s 2% target
- This confirms the hawkish stance — 47% chance of no cuts in 2026 remains justified
GDP Second Estimate (Q4 2025) — Released 8:30 AM
Per WSJ reporting, GDP was revised — the advance estimate was 1.4% annualized. The second estimate appears to have come in at ~0.7% based on WSJ’s mention of Q4 growing by 0.7%. If confirmed, this is a significant downward revision from the 1.4% advance estimate and well below the 3.0% expected.
Stagflation Signal: Hot PCE (3.1% core) + weak GDP (~0.7%) = textbook stagflationary reading. The market is bouncing anyway because oil is pulling back, but this data combination is negative medium-term.
Key Development: US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions
Per Investopedia and WSJ, the U.S. government eased Russian oil sanctions on Thursday, allowing nations to purchase sanctioned Russian crude already in transit. This is a clear attempt to bring global supply online and combat the $100 oil shock from the Iran conflict. This is the primary driver of oil’s pullback today.
Hegseth Update: “No Clear Evidence” Iran Mined Hormuz
Per Reuters, Hegseth stated there is “no clear evidence” Iran has actually mined the Strait of Hormuz — walking back the more alarming framing from earlier this week. This is modestly de-escalatory for oil prices. However, he also noted disruptions could persist.
INTRADAY ADJUSTMENTS
Trade Ideas from Morning Briefings — Status Update
| # | Trade Idea | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VIX mean-reversion short (UVXY puts) | ✅ WORKING — VIX crushed to 25.56, UVXY -3.64% | Hold — but take partial profits, VIX could re-spike into weekend |
| 2 | Exit tanker positions (STNG, FRO, DHT) | ⚠️ MIXED — STNG +0.54%, FRO -0.94%, DHT +1.54% | Tankers bouncing on dip-buying after weakness. EXIT thesis still valid — Russian oil sanction easing is negative for tanker rates. Use today’s bounce to reduce |
| 3 | Long EWY (South Korea) | ✅ WORKING — EWY +2.95% | Hold with stop at $126 (below today’s low of $126.69) |
| 4 | Short ADBE on CEO exit | ✅ WORKING — ADBE -6.13% but recovering from -8% premarket | Cover partial — the worst of the gap-down has been digested, bounce to $255-258 possible |
| 5 | Defense sector fade | ✅ WORKING — LMT -1.34%, NOC -0.25% | Hold shorts — Hegseth “no evidence of mines” de-escalates, defense premium unwinds |
New Intraday Trade Ideas
1. ULTA Short-Term Long (Event-Driven / Mean Reversion)
- ULTA -10.19% on disappointing 2026 guidance — oversold bounce candidate
- Day range $557.21-$579.45, currently $561.02
- Entry: $558-560 (near LOD)
- Target: $575 (partial gap fill)
- Stop: $553
- Thesis: Retailer guidance misses often overshoot on day 1; Ulta has strong brand and this is a guidance miss not a structural break
- Time Horizon: Intraday to 2-day
- Conviction: MEDIUM
2. BTC Momentum Long (Directional / Macro-Driven)
- BTC surging +4.22% to $73,506, approaching the $74K resistance zone
- Oil pullback + rate expectations stabilizing = risk appetite for crypto
- Entry: Pullback to $72,800-73,000
- Target: $75,000 (prior resistance level)
- Stop: $71,500
- Thesis: Crypto leading the risk-on bounce, BTC has been lagging the 2025 highs and is catching up
- Time Horizon: Swing (1-3 days)
- Conviction: MEDIUM-HIGH
3. XLU/XLE Pairs Trade (Relative Value)
- Utilities +1.52% vs Energy +0.06% — massive divergence in first hour
- Long XLE / Short XLU as mean-reversion if oil stabilizes
- Entry: Current spread (~1.46% divergence)
- Target: Spread compression to ~0.5%
- Stop: Spread widens to 2.5%
- Thesis: Energy is oversold on oil pullback fears but crude is still near $95; utilities overbid as safety trade
- Time Horizon: 2-5 days
- Conviction: LOW-MEDIUM (only if oil stabilizes above $90)
4. SPY 0DTE Put Spread for Weekend Hedge (Options / Event-Driven)
- SPY trading at $669, up from $666 close
- Buy SPY Mar 13 $665P / Sell SPY Mar 13 $660P for ~$1.00
- Max risk: $1.00, Max reward: $4.00
- Thesis: Weekend risk is elevated (Iran situation, PCE digestion, Q4 GDP weakness). If anything breaks over the weekend, Monday gap-down is high probability. This is cheap insurance.
- Time Horizon: Today’s expiration
- Conviction: MEDIUM (hedging, not directional)
5. META Relative Weakness Short (Technical / Directional)
- META -2.02% on a +0.45% SPY day — significant underperformance
- Breaking below key levels while peers are flat/green
- Entry: Short at $625 (current level)
- Target: $610 (prior support)
- Stop: $633
- Thesis: If the market can’t lift META on a green day, the next leg lower in the tape will punish it harder
- Time Horizon: 2-5 days
- Conviction: MEDIUM
VOLATILITY CHECK
| Metric | Delta (9:10 AM) | Now (10:39 AM) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | ~27.85 (open) | 25.56 | -6.34% — massive compression |
| VIX Day Range | — | 24.67 – 28.47 | Wide 3.8 pt intraday range |
| UVXY | $50.82 (close) | $48.97 | -3.64% |
| HYG | $79.36 (close) | $79.53, +0.23% | Credit improving slightly |
| LQD | $108.57 (close) | $108.81, +0.22% | IG credit stable |
| HYG/LQD Spread | — | Narrowing | De-risking easing |
VIX dropped from 27.85 open to a low of 24.67 before settling at 25.56. This is significant vol compression — the market is pricing out some tail risk on the Hormuz situation. However, 25.56 is still elevated (historical avg ~18-20). The vol surface is likely still in backwardation (spot VIX > futures), which means the market expects near-term risk to stay high even as it reprices lower.
GEOPOLITICAL / NEWS UPDATE (Changes Since 9:10 AM Delta)
Hegseth: “No Clear Evidence” of Hormuz Mining — [NEW since Delta]
This is a meaningful shift from the 9:10 AM briefing. Per Reuters, Hegseth stated at a news briefing that there is “no clear evidence” Iran has placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This walks back the more alarming “Supreme Leader wounded” rhetoric from earlier. The Pentagon is signaling confidence in keeping Hormuz navigable.
However, per the same briefing, the U.S. death toll from Operation Epic Fury has reached 11, with a refueling jet going down Thursday afternoon.
Russian Oil Sanction Easing — [NEW since Delta]
Per Investopedia, the U.S. government decided Thursday to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian crude already in transit to help the global supply chain. This is directly aimed at preventing oil from staying above $100.
Polymarket Ceasefire Odds — Updated
Per Polymarket:
- March 15 (Saturday): 1% — no imminent ceasefire
- March 31: 22%
- April 15: 32%
- April 30: 41%
- June 30: 59%
- December 31: 77%
Total volume: $23.2M. The market sees this as a multi-month conflict, not days. Plan accordingly.
Iran’s Ceasefire Conditions
Per Times of Israel, Iran has told mediators it will only agree to a ceasefire if it includes a US/Israel guarantee of no future attacks — a non-starter in current political conditions.
BOTTOM LINE
The opening range is cautiously bullish but with warning signs. All indices are green, VIX is collapsing from 27.85 to 25.56, and oil’s pullback from $100 is the primary catalyst. But dig below the surface: this is a defensive-led rally (Utilities +1.52%, Materials -0.12%), Mag 7 breadth is poor (META -2%, AAPL red), volume is running at ~25% of average, and the PCE/GDP combo is stagflationary. The bounce is real but fragile — likely short-covering and weekend hedging rather than conviction buying.
Watch for: SPY $667.73 (today’s low) — if this breaks, the gap fill to $666 is next. On the upside, SPY needs to reclaim $672.34 (first hour high) to signal continuation. The 1:05 PM Midday Pulse will assess whether this holds or fades into the afternoon.
SOURCES
- Market data: Finance tools (Perplexity Finance) — SPY, QQQ, VIX, ADBE, ULTA, META
- Hegseth/Hormuz: Reuters
- Russian oil sanctions: Investopedia
- Oil/market overview: WSJ, CNBC
- PCE expectations: Oxford Economics
- Polymarket: US x Iran Ceasefire
- Treasury yields: Federal Reserve / Massive API
- Iran ceasefire conditions: Times of Israel